We are edging toward a singularity, a major inflection point caused by three trends: (1) law departments shed junior lawyers, calculate fully the hourly costs of the remaining senior lawyers, and find the costs are north of $250 an hour; (2) law departments migrate more work to regional law firms and smaller firms, whose average hourly partner rates are $275-$300 an hour and associate rates are much further south; and (3) law departments squeeze those rates further with discounts and other cost-control vises. Comes the singularity, it will cost less per hour for some companies to use outside lawyers than inside lawyers.
This doomsday scenario may not be as far-fetched as you think.
(1) The fully-loaded internal cost of a lawyer hour, if all expenditures related to them are wrapped into the calculation and departmental layoffs tip toward higher-paid, senior lawyers remaining, even now approaches $250 an hour (See my post of Aug. 27, 2008: fully-loaded cost per lawyer hour with 31 references; and March 9, 2009: fully-loaded costs with 7 more posts.).